The Scale of the Crisis
President Trump swiftly stepped into action during his first week since returning to the White House, declaring drug cartels pose an unprecedented national security threat, far surpassing the dangers of traditional organized crime. These cartels have waged a relentless “campaign of violence and terror” across the Western Hemisphere, destabilizing regions and flooding the United States with deadly drugs, violent criminals, and ruthless gangs. In the face of this growing crisis, United States continues to face a devastating fentanyl crisis that has evolved into a national emergency, threatening public health, economic stability, and national security. This synthetic opioid, originally developed as an intravenous anesthetic in the 1960s, has become the leading cause of death for Americans aged 18 to 45.
Over the past 25 years, more than 727,000 Americans have died from opioid overdoses, marking a tenfold increase in mortality rates from 1999 to 2022. Nearly half of these deaths occurred between 2017 and 2022, with 81,806 lives lost in 2022 alone. Synthetic opioids, primarily illegally manufactured fentanyl, contribute an estimated 90 percent of these deaths.
Global Supply Chain, Geopolitical Challenges, and the Role of Transnational Criminal Organizations
The global supply chain for fentanyl involves complex geopolitical dynamics, particularly with the Peoples Republic of China and Mexican Cartels. From 2014 to 2019, approximately 70-80 percent of confiscated fentanyl in the United States originated in Chinese labs. Today, most fentanyl is produced in Mexico using precursor chemicals sourced from China. Mexican cartels, including the Jalisco New Generation Cartel and the Sinaloa Cartel, dominate this trade by leveraging alliances with Chinese triads to access chemical precursors.
Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs) play a significant role in facilitating the movement of these dangerous substances, exploiting economic disparities and endemic corruption within state institutions and security forces. These organized crime groups have shifted their focus toward synthetic drugs due to their high potency and compact nature, making them easier to smuggle while yielding higher profits than traditional narcotics.
The cartels employ sophisticated tactics to evade detection, including mislabeling shipments, pressing fentanyl into counterfeit prescription pills, and exploiting regulatory loopholes. They utilize existing logistical networks to move substances through Mexican ports and into the United States via multiple routes, including land, air, and sea. Concentrated illicit activities in strategic locations suggest advantages for smuggling operations, even in high-volume legal cargo areas.
Socioeconomic Impact and Economic Toll
The socioeconomic consequences of the fentanyl crisis are profound. The National Survey on Drug Use and Health reveals a troubling trend among Americans under the age of 25, with nearly 40 percent engaging in illicit drug use in the past year. This demographic is also the least likely to seek treatment for substance use disorders, highlighting a critical gap in intervention efforts.
The crisis has disproportionately affected certain communities. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Black and Latino populations experienced the steepest increases in overdose mortality rates. In 2020, Black males in Washington, D.C., faced the highest recorded mortality rate, with 134 fentanyl overdose deaths per 100,000—9.4 times the rate for White males.
The economic toll is staggering. The US Joint Economic Committee estimated that the opioid crisis cost the country $1.5 trillion in 2020, a 37 percent increase from 2017. This figure encompasses healthcare costs, lost productivity, criminal justice expenses, and reduced quality of life for overdose survivors. The crisis has significantly impacted the US labor market, accounting for 43 percent of the decline in men’s labor force participation rate and 25 percent for women between 1999 and 2015.
Implications for National Security
The fentanyl crisis has evolved into a significant national security threat, diminishing the United States’ ability to protect its national interests. It creates challenges for military recruitment, mobilization, and vital industries. The pervasiveness of the epidemic and its ties to TCOs create vulnerabilities that foreign actors, like the PRC, can exploit. The effects of fentanyl and the necessary efforts to combat it reduce American power and strain resources, preventing their allocation to more productive and beneficial purposes.
The global nature of fentanyl production and trafficking has cemented its position as a critical component of geopolitical competition and US foreign policy. With the supply chain primarily running through China and Mexico, addressing this crisis is inherently a diplomatic challenge. U.S.-Mexico relations have been strained by decades of failed counternarcotics cooperation despite substantial investments.
Historical efforts such as Operation Fast and Furious—a covert operation allowing firearms trafficking without Mexican consent—and strategies like targeting cartel leaders have only exacerbated violence while failing to dismantle drug networks effectively. The Kingpin Strategy, designed to combat drug cartels by assassinating high-level leaders, has ironically resulted in increased violence. An analysis revealed that 415 additional deaths were associated with the plan during its first four years of implementation under Mexican President Felipe Calderón’s administration.
The Need for Comprehensive Action
The first administration of President Donald Trump focused intensely on controlling migration flows from Mexico, inadvertently granting Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration significant leverage in bilateral relations. By regulating the flow of migrants to the US border, Mexico effectively deflected US pressure on other critical issues, including fentanyl trafficking and the erosion of democratic institutions. The manipulation of leveraging immigration against the US in place of assistance in combating drug warfare created a political impasse that limited US influence on Mexican policy.
The fentanyl crisis represents a nexus of public health emergency, economic disruption, and geopolitical challenge. Its impacts reverberate through communities, workplaces, and international relations with stark disparities across racial and age demographics. As fentanyl continues to reshape American society and foreign policy, it demands a response that is as robust as the crisis itself. An America First plan would include:
- Enhancing intelligence gathering and sharing capabilities to disrupt TCO operations and supply chains.
- Strengthening border security measures and interdiction efforts using advanced technologies and increased personnel.
- Implementing economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure on nations facilitating the production and trafficking of fentanyl and its precursors.
- Developing robust public health initiatives to address addiction, including expanded access to treatment and harm reduction programs.
- Investing in research and developing non-addictive pain management alternatives and improved detection technologies.
- Reforming domestic policies to address the root causes of addiction, including socioeconomic disparities and mental health issues.
- Enhancing international cooperation through multilateral agreements and joint law enforcement operations.
- Implementing strategic communication campaigns to raise awareness about the dangers of fentanyl and combat misinformation.
The fentanyl crisis represents a clear and present danger to US national security, requiring a coordinated, sustained, and comprehensive response. By leveraging diplomatic, military, economic, and social instruments of national power, the United States can work towards mitigating this threat and safeguarding its citizens and interests. The complexity and scale of this challenge necessitate innovative strategies, cross-sector collaboration, and a long-term commitment to addressing both the supply and demand sides of this deadly epidemic.
Nicholas Dockery is a national security professional and military policy expert. He is a decorated Green Beret and combat veteran—awarded two Silver Stars and two Purple Hearts. He is also a White House Fellow, Wayne Downing Scholar, and a United States Military Academy and Yale University graduate.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the United States Government, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense.
