Airmen who are up for promotion are about to encounter something they've never faced before: quotas.
The quotas, which will limit how many airmen can get the top promotion recommendations and the accompanying points, are one of the final elements of the Air Force's vast overhaul of its enlisted evaluation and promotion system.
In a Sept. 10 interview, Brig. Gen. Brian Kelly, director of military force management policy, said technical sergeants will be the first to encounter the quotas when their EPRs close out Nov. 30. Staff sergeants will come next on Jan. 31, and senior airmen will follow on March 31.
In fiscal 2016, the Air Force is trying to concentrate on growth, stability and continued innovation to improve life for enlisted airmen who in recent years have struggled with drawdowns, low promotion rates, and budget uncertainty, Kelly said.
The promotion quotas and the other EPR changes are some of the key ways the Air Force is trying to innovate, he said.
"Now it's really time to execute those and put them in play for FY 16," Kelly said. "We've begun to do that in some form or fashion here at the end of FY 15, but it really will go into full mode in FY 16, particularly when we get to end of November, which will be the first time that our tech sergeants and the folks executing those evaluations go through the forced distribution discussion."
Under that system, only the top 5 percent of promotion-eligible senior airmen, staff sergeants and technical sergeants can be deemed "promote now" and receive the full 250 out of 250 EPR points. The next 15 percent of senior airmen and 10 percent of staff and tech sergeants can receive a "must promote" rating, which yields 220 points. The next three ratings, "promote," "not ready now" and "do not promote" will get an airman 200, 150 and 50 points, respectively, but there will be no limits on those.
The Air Force hopes the forced distribution quotas will eliminate rampant grade inflation that was commonly known as the "firewall 5." Because there were no limits, raters gave their airmen higher and higher performance ratings until some 90 percent of airmen got the maximum 5, which rendered the old system effectively useless at differentiating performance.
The rollout of the new EPR system has so far gone well, Kelly said, and the Air Force got good feedback from airmen. Officials traveled to bases around the world this summer on a so-called "roadshow" tour, briefing airmen and hearing their thoughts and concerns. Kelly said the Air Force has already enacted some minor tweaks to the forms to be more user-friendly in response to airmen's feedback.
Another innovation the Air Force will continue moving forward on, Kelly said, is the second round of the Career Intermission Program. This program allows up to 40 airmen — 20 officers and 20 enlisted — to take a sabbatical of up to three years to start a family, go back to school, or pursue other personal goals. The first round chose 32 airmen, 14 officers and 18 enlisted, to take time off beginning this year.
The Air Force also hopes to add 4,000 active-duty airmen to the force next year, Kelly said, particularly in maintenance; cyber operations; intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance; and nuclear missiles. This would be the first end strength increase since fiscal 2010.
To do that, the service plans to boost its enlisted accessions from the 24,000 it originally expected, to more than 28,000. It is also more than doubling the number of candidates attending Officer Training School, bringing back hundreds of separated senior airmen, staff sergeants and technical sergeants through prior service accessions, offering high-year tenure extensions to hundreds more enlisted airmen, and allowing Air National Guardsmen and reservists to move to active-duty status.
But there's a wild card: congressional gridlock. If lawmakers can't pass a full budget and only pass a continuing resolution to fund the Air Force at 2015 levels, that would throw a wrench into plans to grow the service.
Kelly would not say if the return of sequestration would force the Air Force to cut airmen, the way it did last year. That is the last thing the Air Force wants to do, he said.
"Growth is the first word to use, going forward," Kelly said.
And the Air Force is hoping to provide more stability for airmen going forward, Kelly said. After years of low promotions, selection rates increased noticeably this year. Kelly thinks that trend will continue in 2016, but eventually level off.
Stephen Losey is the air warfare reporter for Defense News. He previously covered leadership and personnel issues at Air Force Times, and the Pentagon, special operations and air warfare at Military.com. He has traveled to the Middle East to cover U.S. Air Force operations.
